Both Android and iOS to Have More Market Share than RIM by 2011

Research In Motion’s (RIM) BlackBerry line of smartphones are probably going to have to settle for third place in terms of US market share by 2011. Google’s Android OS and the smartphones that it powers have already passed RIM this year in the States, and Apple’s iPhone is on a definite upward climb that Gartner predicts will help it eclipse RIM by the end of the year. Read on for the juicy breakdown.

Gartner thinks that the numbers in 2011 will break down into the following worldwide smartphone OS market shares: Symbian in the lead as always with 34.2%, Android OS in second place with 22.2%, Apple’s iOS taking third place with 17.1%, RIM’s BlackBerry in fourth place with 15%, and finally Microsoft’s Windows Mobile raking in all of 5.2%.

Phew, I really hope Microsoft does better than projected, since its new OS does look a lot better than the old one. Also, since the projections are for actual smartphones and thus do not include iPods, iPads and the like, Apple will probably find itself in a position actually stronger than you would think for its iOS than the raw numbers seem to show. I am sure that Google has no problem with these projections though, by what I can tell from them, Gartner really thinks Android will pass Symbian for the top of the smartphone market globally by 2015.

What does this mean for RIM? Pain and suffering. There really is no other way to slice it. Gartner has RIM’s market share projected at a dismal 11.7% by 2014. I have some faith in the company however, and these are just projections after all and do not take into account all of the craziness that can happen in a short period of time here in smartphone land. Perhaps RIM does have a few aces in its sleeves however. It has started looking at expanding its lower end smartphone sales to smaller, regional carriers and prepaid plans. But if Android can make a push into the feature phone market, then goodbye everyone else hoping to compete with raw numbers.

Think these projections are right on the money? A lot of nonsense? RIM really going to end up in third place in the US next year and fourth place globally? All I can say is, RIM better start making some smartphones that push the boundaries of smartphone hardware and software again. Everyone else is just waiting to feed on its carcass.

Tags: , , , ,